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Analysis and market implications of crude-by-rail movements in North America
Gain insight into the market with the industry's most comprehensive crude-by-rail data
Genscape's monitoring network offers an important view into the North American crude-by-rail market, which has evolved in recent years to become an important component of the crude transportation landscape.
Genscape's PetroRail Report includes fundamental rail loading and unloading volume data, forward-looking and trend market analysis, and spot assessments for U.S. crude benchmarks. Additionally, the report provides the price of Bakken at the rail terminal, loaded onto pipeline, and at North Dakota’s most active crude hub in Beaver Lodge, ND. Genscape assesses the crude tank-car leasing markets for unheated 30,000 gallon, unheated 31,800 gallon, and coiled and insulated 29,000 gallon rail car models, plus provides monthly information on tank car storage rates.
Genscape's proprietary monitors are able to track the number of trains moving and the number of cars per train, resulting in a highly accurate calculation of crude volumes. The movement of crude on rail cars became a key component of the oil supply chain in tandem with the North Dakota Bakken shale boom, but the view of the movements remain opaque.
Genscape currently monitors loadings in key areas and receipt points, including:
- North Dakota/Wyoming: Genscape monitors 87 percent of crude-by-rail capacity in North Dakota, as well as two terminals in Wyoming. Eighty-Eight Oil's terminal in Guernsey, and USD Group-owned terminal in Casper.
- Canada’s Western Sedimentary Basin: Genscape monitors three rail loading facilities in Alberta: the Cenovus terminal in Bruderheim, the Kinder Morgan/Imperial Edmonton facility and the USD Group’s Hardisty terminal.
- U.S. Gulf Coast: In Louisiana, Genscape monitors the NuStar Energy and Plains All American receiving terminals in St. James, as well as Murex’s New Orleans unloading facility. In Texas, the Maverick GT Omniport Port Arthur is monitored, while volume data is also collected in New Mexico at Murex’s Carlsbad facility.
- U.S. East Coast: Genscape monitors the following unloading terminals on the East Coast: Global Partners’ in Albany, NY, Plains All American’s in Yorktown, VA, Philadelphia Energy Partners’ in Philadelphia, PA, PBF Energy’s in Delaware City, DE.
- U.S. West Coast: Genscape collects data at Tesoro’s Anacortes, WA, facility, Plains’ Bakersfield, CA, facility.
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The PetroRail Report includes:
- Market information
- Analysis of fundamental developments
- Calculated producer netbacks
- Rail freight costs
- Price assessments
- Genscape rail delivered crude price assessments
- Rail-car leasing rates
- Crude differential assessments
- Fundamental data
- Rail loading volumes
- Rail unloading volumes
- Key pipeline flows
- A weekly newsletter with the information that will help develop new trading strategies, identify competitors' economics and determine the price of the marginal barrel
- A daily newsletter updating rail loading and pipeline flows in the Bakken producing region, as well as crude-by-rail receipts at two key St. James, LA, unloading facilities
Weekly PetroRail Report Benefits:
- Understand how rail is being utilized as a flexible option for oil producers to sell their product at the highest price possible
- Develop new trading strategies when you know where oil is going and where it’s coming from by rail
- Identify competitors’ economics when you see the price and time it takes to transport on various rail systems
- Gain insight into rail infrastructure development to better assess Bakken crude oil deliveries
- Determine the price of the marginal barrel when you have the most up-to-date insight into rail movements and transportation costs
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PetroRail: Methodology & Specifications
Genscape gathers information for its price assessments throughout the trading week so that they are accurate and representative of market value. To get this information, Genscape analysts collect bids, offers, and transactional information from a wide variety of market participants. The aim in this data-collection process is to determine all the circumstances surrounding this information, including quantity, location, dimensions, loading times, delivery times, etc.
In this assessment process, Genscape considers all information gathered and assess the value of the particular markets included in the PetroRail report at 3:00 p.m. Central Time on Monday's. This analysis reflects the tradable value of the commodity in question at that time. Genscape analysts may also look at related data inputs, such as corresponding markets and its own proprietary rail-car loading data.
Genscape aims to evolve its PetroRail price methodology with changing market conditions. Analysts regularly engage market participants to determine if market conditions warrant a revision to the PetroRail Report’s underlying methodology.