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Real-time tracking of the Forties supply chain with production, pipeline flows, cargo shipments and disruption alerts
Hedge against supply disruptions and make more informed decisions with proprietary fundamental data and market intelligence
Frequent technical challenges, production difficulties and last-minute cargo shipment delays have created an opaque market often led by rumors and hearsay about conditions at the Forties – itself a vast network of 70 offshore oil fields, four pumping stations, refining, storage and 169 kilometers of pipelines.
Genscape's Forties Supply Chain Service provides insightful alerts as they happen. They not only highlight variations in the real-time pipeline flow, but also emphasize events that affect the key operating units at Kinneil and Grangemouth. The daily snapshot of oil storage, pipeline, shipment and refinery activity provides a valuable overview of Forties exiting the system. Genscape has an extensive in-the-field network of high-tech, proprietary monitors that provide real-time tracking and measurements of production levels, cargo shipments, outages and other key factors.
Genscape shines a light into this important corner of the global oil market by monitoring not only the flow on the onshore Forties pipeline, but also the operations of the fractionation plant at Kinneil, the storage at Dalmeny and the Grangemouth refinery. NGL separation from the Forties offshore stream at Kinneil is essential for pipeline flow.
This 360° view of the entire system allows Genscape clients to anticipate any cargo deferrals or other disruptions that could affect the price of the BFOE marker.
Delivery: Emailed daily PDF reports, alerts, & access to Genscape's Oil Intelligence dashboard
Subscribe: Call +31 20 524 4089 or +1 866 292 8060
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Features of the Forties Supply Chain Monitor Service:
- Daily snapshot of oil storage, pipeline, shipment and refinery activity provides a valuable overview of Forties exiting the system
- Half-hourly updates on flows to the on-shore portion of the Forties pipeline
- Daily oil balance figure for a complete and accurate picture of oil available for export
- Real-time data on the operations of the fractionation plant at Kinneil, and daily data on the storage at Dalmeny and the Grangemouth refinery
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Benefits of the Forties Supply Hub Service:
- Anticipate cargo deferrals or other disruptions that could affect the price of the BFOE marker
- Hedge supply disruptions with greater transparency into the Forties oil network
- Make more informed decisions using accurate, real-time proprietary data
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How does Genscape monitor the Forties oil network in real-time?
The Forties pipeline system has an oil processing capacity of 1.15mn bpd and flows from the Forties Unity platform to the Kinneil crude stabilization plant. Stabilized oil is then delivered either directly to ship at Hound Point, to tank at Dalmeny, or to the refinery at Grangemouth.
The Forties Oil Balance model sums the flow to each of the three delivery locations: Forties to Grangemouth storage, Forties to ships at Hound Point, and Dalmeny storage change, averaging the total over the last seven data points.
Forties to Grangemouth storage flow is calculated using proprietary methods to monitor oil levels in the tanks at Kinneil. Using proprietary algorithms, the tank levels are transformed into pipeline flow data.
Forties to ships at Hound Point flow is derived from images, taken every three minutes, of the Hound Point marine terminal. If a ship arrives and leaves in the interval between two measurements, it is assumed that it loaded its entire capacity. If a ship is still in port during the time of the measurement, the Forties to ship amount is calculated by using the average oil loading rate from all previous ship dockings.
Dalmeny storage change flow is calculated using proprietary methods to monitor oil levels in the tanks at Dalmeny.