Genscape analyst Joseph Bernardi said upstream competition from cooling demand in the Desert Southwest region likely contributed to Monday’s spike, combining with “a significant amount of import restrictions” from unplanned maintenance events on SoCalGas’s system.
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“There are a couple of things in SPP that will be coming down the pipeline in the next couple of years,” said Brian McIntosh, product director at Genscape. “With Mountain West [Transmission Group]’s integration, you will have a ton of hydro and baseload generation that would be added into SPP with a limited load. You’ll be adding more supply to the system with more wind growth.”
Energy industry intelligence service Genscape said on Friday that Valero shut the 88,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) shortly after the explosion at about 5 p.m. local time (2200 GMT) on Thursday.
The recent strengthening in crude prices puts more downward pressure on gas forwards given the prospect for associated gas growth, according to Genscape analyst Rick Margolin.
The crude oil prompt month settlement at $68.29/bbl Thursday at the time marked “its highest level since November 2014,” Margolin said in a note to clients Friday.
Genscape Inc. senior natural gas analyst Eric Fell told NGI that if most of the project is ultimately delayed until 2020, it could have an impact on the U.S. gas market. Only five LNG trains are operating in the country between Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in Louisiana and Dominion Energy Inc.’s Cove Point facility in Maryland. Nine trains, including the three at Freeport, and others at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi terminal and Sempra’s Cameron facility, are expected to come online next year, Fell said.
Fell in a note to clients Friday said the Freeport delay could reduce LNG exports by an average of 600 MMcf/d next winter and by 1.3 Bcf/d in the summer of 2019. However,as the other U.S. LNG trains come online next year, and as Australian exports ramp up, pundits expect that capacity utilization could decline.
According to Genscape Vesseltracker, Crystal Sunrise was chartered to Japanese LPG company Gyxis and 2003-built, 105,167 dwt Astro Saturn was chartered by European trading house Trafigura and was carrying fuel oil when the accident occurred on 16 April.
Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) on Wednesday said it was “extending its L3000 maintenance for an additional four and a half months past the previously expected completion date of May 1, which means that import capacity will continue to be notably constrained throughout the summer,” Genscape analyst Joe Bernardi said. “This work is limiting operational capacity at SoCalGas’s two Topock receipt points to zero." “Before reductions took effect in early 2016 at these points, they had brought on an average of 324 MMcf/d,” Bernardi said. “This maintenance has been extended several times, well beyond the initially estimated reinstatement date of Oct. 31, 2016. The newly announced end date is Sept. 17.”
According to Genscape analyst Rick Margolin, recent signals suggest declines in Mexican domestic natural gas production could be slowing down, impacting the outlook for U.S. exports to Mexico in the longer-term.
“In a notice posted Tuesday afternoon, Millennium announced restrictions along the Corning East segment, capping it at 730 MMcf/d until further notice,” Genscape Inc. analyst Molly Rosenstein said. “Corning East is a key segment on the western end of the system, upstream of storage interconnects to Stagecoach and Seneca Lake, and pipeline interconnects to Empire and Dominion. Based on Tuesday’s flows, the restrictions will affect 65 MMcf/d westbound New York flows.”
“Combining the cold with the structural demand growth already present in the market, we see demand reach record highs,” Genscape said. “Demand is averaging an April record high of 5.69 Bcf/d and has not dropped below 5 Bcf/d on any single day. To put that in context, April demand has never topped the 5 Bcf/d mark in the last 11 years.”
Tugs were dispatched to douse the flames. According to Genscape Vesseltracker, Miri District maritime director sent Sinabawang Nabed 23 and Siakap to the burning ship. They were assisted by offshore vessels Hisyam 8 and Neopetro 18 at the accident.